Here is a little something I dug up today. In looking at the statistics around death in the US especially with an eye to COVID I asked myself the question "Can I determine how many more people died than we might have anticipated with this virus on the loose?" In looking at the stats I have to say few if any. What I did was this:
1) get the monthly deaths since 1999 from CDC.
2) get the US population by year since 1999
3) graph the deaths by month (using Excel)
4) copy that graph adjusting the death totals by proportional change in population.
Look at the numbers.
Here is the result simply:
A) deaths are higher this year but not as high as 1999
the month to month trend pattern is the same as every other year (no kidding, the chart looks like an EKG)
C) the average monthly deaths (population adjusted) has been rising since 1999. If you establish a trend line from that point forward there is no significant statistical difference between deaths through March 2020 than the trend line would have predicted in Jan 2019.
My conclusions:
1) I have no reason to live in fear of COVID
2) I have many reasons to bless people with my new found freedom by wearing a mask (as Paul said, "Not letting my freedom become a stumbling block to others"
3) Encourage others with the hope of the truth (God) and the statistical truth (this COVID thing is no reason to elect a socialist, give up your freedom, or surrender your dignity to government)
[for nerds and skeptics: my data sources were the CDC Wonder database and the Census Bureau.]
